Development and validation of multivariable prediction models of serological response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in kidney transplant recipients.

Repeated vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 increases serological response in kidney transplant recipients (KTR) with high interindividual variability. No decision support tool exists to predict SARS-CoV-2 vaccination response to third or fourth vaccination in KTR. We developed, internally and externally validated five different multivariable prediction models of serological response after the third and fourth vaccine dose against SARS-CoV-2 in previously seronegative, COVID-19-naïve KTR. Using 20 candidate predictor variables, we applied statistical and machine learning approaches including logistic regression (LR), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-regularized LR, random forest, and gradient boosted regression trees. For development and internal validation, data from 590 vaccinations were used. External validation was performed in four independent, international validation cohorts comprising 191, 184, 254, and 323 vaccinations, respectively. LASSO-regularized LR performed on the whole development dataset yielded a 20- and 10-variable model, respectively. External validation showed AUC-ROC of 0.840, 0.741, 0.816, and 0.783 for the sparser 10-variable model, yielding an overall performance 0.812. A 10-variable LASSO-regularized LR model predicts vaccination response in KTR with good overall accuracy. Implemented as an online tool, it can guide decisions whether to modulate immunosuppressive therapy before additional active vaccination, or to perform passive immunization to improve protection against COVID-19 in previously seronegative, COVID-19-naïve KTR.

The systemic renin-angiotensin system in COVID-19.

SARS-CoV-2 gains cell entry via angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) 2, a membrane-bound enzyme of the "alternative" (alt) renin-angiotensin system (RAS). ACE2 counteracts angiotensin II by converting it to potentially protective angiotensin 1-7. Using mass spectrometry, we assessed key metabolites of the classical RAS (angiotensins I-II) and alt-RAS (angiotensins 1-7 and 1-5) pathways as well as ACE and ACE2 concentrations in 159 patients hospitalized with COVID-19, stratified by disease severity (severe, n = 76; non-severe: n = 83). Plasma renin activity (PRA-S) was calculated as the sum of RAS metabolites. We estimated ACE activity using the angiotensin II:I ratio (ACE-S) and estimated systemic alt-RAS activation using the ratio of alt-RAS axis metabolites to PRA-S (ALT-S). We applied mixed linear models to assess how PRA-S and ACE/ACE2 concentrations affected ALT-S, ACE-S, and angiotensins II and 1-7. Median angiotensin I and II levels were higher with severe versus non-severe COVID-19 (angiotensin I: 86 versus 30 pmol/L, p < 0.01; angiotensin II: 114 versus 58 pmol/L, p < 0.05), demonstrating activation of classical RAS. The difference disappeared with analysis limited to patients not taking a RAS inhibitor (angiotensin I: 40 versus 31 pmol/L, p = 0.251; angiotensin II: 76 versus 99 pmol/L, p = 0.833). ALT-S in severe COVID-19 increased with time (days 1-6: 0.12; days 11-16: 0.22) and correlated with ACE2 concentration (r = 0.831). ACE-S was lower in severe versus non-severe COVID-19 (1.6 versus 2.6; p < 0.001), but ACE concentrations were similar between groups and correlated weakly with ACE-S (r = 0.232). ACE2 and ACE-S trajectories in severe COVID-19, however, did not differ between survivors and non-survivors. Overall RAS alteration in severe COVID-19 resembled severity of disease-matched patients with influenza. In mixed linear models, renin activity most strongly predicted angiotensin II and 1-7 levels. ACE2 also predicted angiotensin 1-7 levels and ALT-S. No single factor or the combined model, however, could fully explain ACE-S. ACE2 and ACE-S trajectories in severe COVID-19 did not differ between survivors and non-survivors. In conclusion, angiotensin II was elevated in severe COVID-19 but was markedly influenced by RAS inhibitors and driven by overall RAS activation. ACE-S was significantly lower with severe COVID-19 and did not correlate with ACE concentrations. A shift to the alt-RAS axis because of increased ACE2 could partially explain the relative reduction in angiotensin II levels.

Corrigendum: Three-Month follow-up of heterologous vs. homologous third SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in kidney transplant recipients: Secondary analysis of a randomized controlled trial.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2022.936126.].

Development and validation of multivariable prediction models of serological response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in kidney transplant recipients

Repeated vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 increases serological response in kidney transplant recipients (KTR) with high interindividual variability. No decision support tool exists to predict SARS-CoV-2 vaccination response to third or fourth vaccination in KTR. We developed, internally and externally validated five different multivariable prediction models of serological response after the third and fourth vaccine dose against SARS-CoV-2 in previously seronegative, COVID-19-naïve KTR. Using 20 candidate predictor variables, we applied statistical and machine learning approaches including logistic regression (LR), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-regularized LR, random forest, and gradient boosted regression trees. For development and internal validation, data from 590 vaccinations were used. External validation was performed in four independent, international validation cohorts comprising 191, 184, 254, and 323 vaccinations, respectively. LASSO-regularized LR performed on the whole development dataset yielded a 20- and 10-variable model, respectively. External validation showed AUC-ROC of 0.840, 0.741, 0.816, and 0.783 for the sparser 10-variable model, yielding an overall performance 0.812. A 10-variable LASSO-regularized LR model predicts vaccination response in KTR with good overall accuracy. Implemented as an online tool, it can guide decisions whether to modulate immunosuppressive therapy before additional active vaccination, or to perform passive immunization to improve protection against COVID-19 in previously seronegative, COVID-19-naïve KTR.

Three-Month Follow-Up of Heterologous vs. Homologous Third SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination in Kidney Transplant Recipients: Secondary Analysis of a Randomized Controlled Trial.

Response to SARS-CoV-2-vaccines in kidney-transplant recipients (KTR) is severely reduced. Heterologous3rd vaccination combining mRNA and vector vaccines did not increase seroconversion at 4 weeks after vaccination, but evolution of antibody levels beyond the first month remains unknown. We have recently completed a randomized-controlled trial on heterologous (Ad26COVS1) vs. homologous (BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273) 3rd vaccination in 201 KTR not developing SARS-CoV-2-spike-protein antibodies following two doses of mRNA vaccine (EurdraCT: 2021-002927-39). Here, we report seroconversion at the second follow-up at 3 months after the 3rd vaccination (prespecified secondary endpoint). In addition, higher cut-off levels associated with neutralizing capacity and protective immunity were applied (i.e., > 15, > 100, > 141, and > 264 BAU/ml). A total of 169 patients were available for the 3-month follow-up. Overall, seroconversion at 3 months was similar between both groups (45 vs. 50% for mRNA and the vector group, respectively; p = 0.539). However, when applying higher cut-off levels, a significantly larger number of individuals in the vector group reached antibody levels > 141 and > 264 BAU/ml at the 3-month follow-up (141 BAU/ml: 4 vs. 15%, p = 0.009 and 264 BAU/ml: 1 vs. 10%, p = 0.018 for mRNA vs. the vector vaccine group, respectively). In line, antibody levels in seroconverted patients further increased from month 1 to month 3 in the vector group while remaining unchanged in the mRNA group (median increase: mRNA = 1.35 U/ml and vector = 27.6 U/ml, p = 0.004). Despite a similar overall seroconversion rate at 3 months following 3rd vaccination in KTR, a heterologous 3rd booster vaccination with Ad26COVS1 resulted in significantly higher antibody levels in responders.

Stopping of Mycophenolic Acid in Kidney Transplant Recipients for 2 Weeks Peri-Vaccination Does Not Increase Response to SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination-A Non-randomized, Controlled Pilot Study.

Introduction: Kidney transplant recipients (KTR) are at high risk of developing severe COVID-19. However, vaccine response in this population is severely impaired with humoral response rates of 36-54 and 55-69% after two or three doses of SARS-COV-2 vaccines, respectively. Triple immunosuppression and specifically the use of anti-proliferative agents such as mycophenolic acid (MPA) or azathioprine (AZA) have been identified as risk factors for vaccine hypo-responsiveness. Methods: We hypothesized that in vaccine non-responders to at least three previous vaccine doses, pausing of MPA or AZA for 1 week before and 1 week after an additional vaccination would improve humoral response rates. We conducted an open-label, non-randomized controlled pilot study including 40 KTR with no detectable humoral response after three or four previous vaccine doses. Primary endpoint was seroconversion following SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. MPA and AZA was paused in 18 patients 1 week before until 1 week after an additional vaccine dose while immunosuppression was continued in 22 patients. Results: There was no difference in the humoral response rate between the MPA/AZA pause group and the control group (29 vs. 32%, p > 0.99). Absolute antibody levels were also not statistically significantly different between the two groups (p = 0.716).Renal function in the MPA/AZA pause group remained stable and there was no detection of new onset donor-specific antibodies or an increase of donor-derived cell-free DNA serving as a marker of allograft damage throughout the study period. Conclusion: Pausing of MPA/AZA for 2 weeks peri-vaccination did not increase the rate of seroconversion in kidney transplant. However, one in three KTR without humoral immune response to at least three previous vaccinations developed antibodies after an additional vaccine dose supporting continued vaccination in non-responders.

Comparison of SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Response 4 Weeks After Homologous vs Heterologous Third Vaccine Dose in Kidney Transplant Recipients: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Fewer than 50% of kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) develop antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein after 2 doses of an mRNA vaccine. Preliminary data suggest that a heterologous vaccination, combining mRNA and viral vector vaccines, may increase immunogenicity. Objective: To assess the effectiveness of a third dose of an mRNA vs a vector vaccine in KTRs who did not have antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein after 2 doses of an mRNA vaccine. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a single center, single-blinded, 1:1 randomized clinical trial of a third dose of vaccine against SARS-CoV-2, conducted from June 15 to August 16, 2021, in 201 KTRs who had not developed SARS-CoV-2 spike protein antibodies after 2 doses of an mRNA vaccine. Data analyses were performed from August 17 to August 31, 2021. Interventions: mRNA (BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273) or vector (Ad26COVS1) as a third dose of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary study end point was seroconversion after 4 weeks (29-42 days) following the third vaccine dose. Secondary end points included neutralizing antibodies and T-cell response assessed by interferon-γ release assays (IGRA). In addition, the association of patient characteristics and vaccine response was assessed using logistic regression, and the reactogenicity of the vaccines was compared. Results: Among the study population of 197 kidney transplant recipients (mean [SD] age, 61.2 [12.4] years; 82 [42%] women), 39% developed SARS-CoV-2 antibodies after the third vaccine. There was no statistically significant difference between groups, with an antibody response rate of 35% and 42% for the mRNA and vector vaccines, respectively. Only 22% of seroconverted patients had neutralizing antibodies. Similarly, T-cell response assessed by IGRA was low with only 17 patients showing a positive response after the third vaccination. Receiving nontriple immunosuppression (odds ratio [OR], 3.59; 95% CI, 1.33-10.75), longer time after kidney transplant (OR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.15-1.83, per doubling of years), and torque teno virus plasma levels (OR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.88-0.96, per doubling of levels) were associated with vaccine response. The third dose of an mRNA vaccine was associated with a higher frequency of local pain at the injection site compared with the vector vaccine, while systemic symptoms were comparable between groups. Conclusions and Relevance: This randomized clinical trial found that 39% of KTRs without an immune response against SARS-CoV-2 after 2 doses of an mRNA vaccine developed antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein 4 weeks after a third dose of an mRNA or a vector vaccine. The heterologous vaccination strategy with a vector-based vaccine was well tolerated and safe but not significantly better than the homologous mRNA-based strategy. Trial Registration: EudraCT Identifier: 2021-002927-39.

[COVID-19 and renal transplantation]. / COVID-19 und Nierentransplantation.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic poses a particular risk for kidney transplant recipients. This is due to a high prevalence of comorbidities as well as therapeutic immunosuppression, which plays a complex role in view of the severe hyperinflammation contributing to morbidity and mortality. Many published case series including kidney transplant recipients reported a high proportion of hospitalized cases and mortality rates of 13-23%. The clinical symptoms and established risk factors for severe disease seem to be similar to those of the general population. The management of immunosuppressive treatment is a delicate question in the treatment of kidney transplant recipients with COVID-19. According to the current recommendations, a stepwise reduction should be carried out depending on the clinical course of the disease. Ongoing efforts to find an effective treatment for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2) focus on repurposing known antiviral and anti-inflammatory substances. To date, only dexamethasone has shown to be an effective treatment in the subgroup of patients requiring oxygen supplementation; however, countless trials including novel therapeutic approaches are ongoing.

Impact of Timely Public Health Measures on Kidney Transplantation in Austria during the SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak-A Nationwide Analysis.

SARS-CoV-2 led to considerable morbidity/mortality worldwide and tremendously impacted on daily life. Strict lockdown measures were implemented early to contain the viral outbreak in Austria. Massive changes in organizational structures of healthcare facilities followed with unclear implications on the care of non-COVID-19-affected patients. We studied the nationwide impact of COVID-19 on kidney transplantation in Austria during the first six months of 2020. Concurrent with general lockdown measures, all kidney transplant activity was suspended from 13 March to 9 April. Nevertheless, between January and June, total transplant (p = 0.48) and procured donor organ numbers (p = 0.6) did not differ significantly from earlier years. Ten (0.18%) of 5512 prevalent Austrian kidney transplant recipients were diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2. The case fatality rate (one death; 10%) in renal transplant patients was less than in other countries but higher than in Austria's general population (2.4%). We conclude that early and strict general lockdown measures imposed by the government allowed an early, however cautious, re-opening of Austrian transplant programs and played a crucial role for the favorable outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 in Austrian kidney transplant patients. Even though it may be uncertain whether similar results may be obtainable in other countries, the findings may support early intervention strategies during similar episodes in the future.